{"id":1695,"date":"2014-11-05T20:17:16","date_gmt":"2014-11-06T04:17:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.puckandmary.com\/blog_puck\/?p=1695"},"modified":"2014-11-05T21:33:55","modified_gmt":"2014-11-06T05:33:55","slug":"demographic-changes-the-rise-of-a-progressive-titan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.puckandmary.com\/blog_puck\/2014\/11\/demographic-changes-the-rise-of-a-progressive-titan\/","title":{"rendered":"Demographic Changes – The Rise of a Progressive Titan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Are you angry that the Democrats were beaten in the midterms?\u00a0 If you are, the number you need to repeat every day is “3,600”.\u00a0 I will explain.<\/p>\n

The recent elections are a generational struggle between the Silent or “Lucky Few<\/a>” generation and the Millennial<\/a> generation.\u00a0 It isn’t unusual to place the blame squarely at the feet of the massive Baby Boomer<\/a> generation but that cohort has been reliably split between the two parties.\u00a0 The Boomers display a slight Democratic preference offset by a larger degree of racial intolerance than the younger generations.\u00a0 By contrast, the older Silent generation is staunchly Republican and much more racially intolerant than any other generational group still capable of forming a voting bloc.\u00a0 They are even more Republican than their predecessors, the Greatest generation.<\/p>\n

“The demographics race we’re losing badly,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told the Washington Post<\/a>. “We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.”<\/p>\n

Boomers and Xers<\/h2>\n

The Boomers are so split that they largely negate themselves.\u00a0 When the Boomers agree they make a big difference but they often don\u2019t.\u00a0 The Gen-Xers skew slightly in favor of the Democrats but not enough to outweigh the conservative half of the Boomer cohort married to the monolithic conservatism of the Silents.<\/p>\n

\u00a0The Young Challengers<\/h2>\n
\"Millennials<\/a>

Millennials are the largest generation numbering at 95 million compared to 78 million for the Baby Boomers.<\/p><\/div>\n

The Millennials are the largest generation in history, the most racially diverse and tolerant, and also the most liberal.\u00a0 They have been very unlucky economically and are taking repeated punches as they try to establish themselves in the world.\u00a0 They have enormous student loans, no acquired capital, delay marriage, delay children, and cannot afford a house.\u00a0 The youngest Millennials are about 14 years old in 2014 and by 2018 they will all be eligible to vote.<\/p>\n

\u00a0The Reigning Champions<\/h2>\n
\"The<\/a>

The Silent Generation are the swing voters that pull the Boomers one direction or another.<\/p><\/div>\n

On the other side, the Silent generation has earned the moniker “The Lucky Few”.\u00a0 They have enjoyed a series of wonderful advantages in their lifetimes which ensured they were largely debt free, owned a home, and could comfortably retire.\u00a0 As a cohort it makes some sense that this generation feels like you should be able to work your way out of poverty because their unique economic environment made this almost universally possible.\u00a0 The Silents range in age from about 70 years old to about 86 with a median age of about 80.<\/p>\n

This lays out an interesting struggle between the very liberal Millennials and the very conservative Silent generation.\u00a0 What it also tells us is that the struggle between Silents and Millennials has an expiration date measured by the life expectancy of the Silents.\u00a0 Using birth rates and mortality tables we can begin to lay out the pattern that will guide the next major shift in American politics.<\/p>\n

\u00a0I did some math…<\/h2>\n

I created a model of the US population consisting of approximately 300,000,000 people.\u00a0 I divided that group up into birth-year groups and applied percentages from the following source using 2012 data to find the size of the population for each year:<\/p>\n